While Trump says PM Modi assured him India would halt Russian oil imports, data shows India continues to import substantial volumes despite some recent cuts.
Trump’s Bold Assertion
- U.S. President Donald Trump stated that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had assured him India would stop purchasing Russian oil.
- He acknowledged the shift wouldn’t be immediate, calling it “a process,” but insisted it would happen.
- Trump also suggested that if India cuts off Russian oil, it would help him broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.
What the Numbers Show
India Still a Major Russian Oil Buyer
- In September 2025, India accounted for 34% of Russia’s seaborne crude exports, despite a 10% drop in imports in the first eight months of the year.
- Crude imports in September rose slightly to more than 4.5 million barrels per day (bpd), edging past August’s figures.
Refiners Cutting Back
- Some state-run refineries reduced their Russian oil imports by over 45% between June and September.
- However, the overall import numbers remain strong, suggesting that cuts may be more tactical than structural.
Financial Scale
- In September, India remained the second-largest buyer of Russian fossil fuels, with purchases reaching about ₹25,597 crore.
India’s Position & Justifications
- Domestic Priorities: India has defended its continued purchases, arguing they help stabilize domestic fuel prices and ensure supply reliability.
- External Pressure: Despite Trump’s claim and the U.S. imposing a 25% tariff on Indian imports from Russia (on top of existing levies), India has remained firm on maintaining its energy approach.
- No Official Confirmation: India has not officially confirmed Trump’s assertion of Modi’s promise. Officials emphasize energy decisions are based on national interest, not foreign demands.
What to Watch
- Will India announce a formal shift in oil sourcing policy to align with diplomatic pressures?
- How will reforms or changes at the refinery level affect future import patterns?
- Can the U.S. and India reconcile strategic goals around energy, diplomacy, and trade?
